Multi-page article http://education.gov.uk/b0014238/guide-2006/local-authority-level 2012-04-26T15:15:39 Section 4: Projecting pupil numbers at local authority level Section 4: Projecting pupil numbers at local authority level An overview of the most common methods used for making projections at authority level and suggestions on how these methods may be adapted to reflect local circumstances. <![CDATA[ The research that Hedra carried out originally in 2004/5 into the pupil projection methods used by local authorities, found that the projections for the whole authority are used for: <ul> <li> budget setting at authority level;</li> <li> long-term school planning; and</li> <li> organisation and planning of other children's services.</li> </ul> The research found that the projections for the authority as a whole spanned up to 12 years for secondary and seven years for primary pupil numbers. These projections are an essential step in facilitating school-level projections, as well as being useful in their own right. The method used for making projections at authority level should influence, and be compatible with, the methods used to make projections at school level. For example, they should take into account the local trends in pupil numbers and identify significant changes in these. The projection for the authority as a whole should be considered carefully when validating school-level projections. In some cases, it may not be possible to complete projections at school level without taking into account the projections for the authority as a whole. This section presents an overview of the most common methods used for making projections at authority level and suggests how these methods may be adapted to reflect local circumstances. These methods may also be used to make projections for sub-areas within an authority. See Section 6 on how to make projections for sub-areas within the authority. <h1> Completing projections at local authority level</h1> Hedra's original research found that most authorities use similar methods for making projections of pupil numbers at authority level. For example: <ul> <li> population data are used to project the number of children in the reception classes across the authority. This information either relates to the number of births or to resident children aged 0 to 4. This is the only stage of the projection process where data may need to be obtained from sources outside the local authority; </li> <li> historic pupil counts are used to project the number of children in all other year groups across the authority. This number has been arrived at either by calculating historic cohort survival rates or migration rates (to reflect children coming into or leaving the area between school years) or by rolling cohorts forward by 100 per cent; and</li> <li> a small number of local authorities have taken into account the impact of housing developments when making their overall projections, especially those for the longer term.</li> </ul> <h1> Good practice</h1> Where necessary, each authority should adapt or adjust its projection methods to take account of local circumstances. The extent to which methods need to be tailored may depend on: <ul> <li> the availability of data on the population of school-age children and in particular, the nature and accuracy of data available about pre-school children who live in the authority, or in other neighbouring authorities but who could attend schools within the authority. (Such information is valuable when projecting numbers in reception classes);</li> <li> historical data on the stability of pupil numbers in the authority between year groups, and particularly at key transfer points; and</li> <li> the complexity of cross-boundary flows with other local authorities, the numbers of pupils involved, and whether these are changing significantly.</li> </ul> This process is illustrated in the attached download. You can see the actual process adopted by each of the authorities involved in the case studies: <ul> <li> Redcar and Cleveland</li> <li> North Somerset</li> <li> Cornwall</li> </ul> The main phases in the process for making pupil projections are: <ul> <li> Phase 1: completion of projections for reception classes</li> <li> Phases 2 and 3: completion of projections for all other year groups and calculation of the decrease in the pupil population when the projected year-11 pupils leave school</li> <li> Phase 4: (although you could argue this is a part of each of the other phases) is to validate the projections before finalising and reporting them.</li> </ul> <h1> Good practice</h1> Before completing new projections, the accuracy of previous projections should be tested. You can find information on accuracy testing — this takes you to stage 1 of the process for making individual school projections in section 5 of this guide. ]]> false English Projecting pupil numbers at local authority level

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