The core tasks make up a general process that each authority must follow to make projections of pupil numbers. Authorities can use alternative approaches for each core task. For example:
- reception classes can be projected from birth data or data about resident four-year-olds from GP registers;
- cohorts can be rolled forward 100 per cent or a migration/survival rate can be used; and
- transfer year numbers can be projected on the basis of catchment areas, feeder schools or the trend in recent actual transfer numbers.
Whatever choices are made for the general process the detail of the method needs to be further tailored to suit the local circumstances. To do this, each authority has to consider some cross-cutting issues. Each cross-cutting issue affects the detail of both the design and the application of the method used for making projections. Three particularly important cross cutting issues to be considered are:
- the amount (i.e. number of years) of historic data that should be used as the basis for the calculations;
- the level the initial projections should be at; e.g. geographic clusters of schools serving relatively discreet populations, or individual schools; and
- whether any schools warrant an individual approach because demand for their places follows a divergent pattern to the area as a whole.
You can find more detailed guidance on how to tailor the pupil projection method to take account of the cross-cutting issues (Section 6).
